A Contentious Path to Confirmation

The confirmation process for Warsh, 56, was marked by sharp partisan divides and heated debate. The final 54-45 vote on Wednesday saw Democrat Senator John Fetterman break ranks to join his Republican colleagues in supporting President Trump’s nominee.

Warsh’s appointment follows a volatile period for the Fed, during which:

• A 14-Year Tenure: Beyond the Chairmanship, Warsh was also confirmed for a full 14-year term on the central bank’s Board of Governors.
• Political Tension: Senator Elizabeth Warren famously labeled Warsh a “sock puppet” for the administration, highlighting fears that the Fed’s traditional autonomy is at risk.
• The Powell Transition: Warsh officially succeeds Jerome Powell, whose term ends this Friday, May 15, 2026.

“Regime Change” and the New Monetary Vision

Kevin Warsh is not a newcomer to the Fed, having served on the board from 2006 to 2011. However, he returns with a mandate for what he calls “regime change” within the institution. His policy stance focuses on:

• Balance Sheet Reduction: Warsh advocates for a smaller Fed balance sheet to allow for lower policy rates.
• Aggressive Rate Cuts: Aligning with President Trump’s fiscal vision, Warsh has pivoted toward supporting rate cuts to stimulate growth, a reversal from his stance during the previous administration.
• Market Expectations: Despite the leadership change, experts at CME FedWatch predict a 97% chance that interest rates will remain steady at 3.50% to 3.75% through the June 16-17 meeting, the first to be chaired by Warsh.

Navigating Economic Turbulence

The new Chair assumes leadership as the U.S. faces significant economic headwinds. Recent data reveals a 3.8% annual rise in consumer prices, fueled by a nearly 30% spike in energy costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The transition comes after a period of unprecedented pressure on the central bank. The Trump administration previously initiated—and later dropped—a Department of Justice probe into Jerome Powell, a move critics described as a pretext to force a resignation. With Warsh now confirmed, the financial world watches closely to see if the Federal Reserve can maintain its credibility as an independent arbiter of the U.S. economy or if it will lean closer to the executive branch’s influence.

About the Federal Reserve Chair

The Chair of the Federal Reserve is the highest-ranking officer of the central bank of the United States. The role is responsible for overseeing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets the nation’s monetary policy, including interest rates and the management of the money supply, to ensure price stability and maximum employment.

FAQ’s

1. Who is Kevin Warsh and why is his appointment important?
Kevin Warsh is the newly confirmed Chair of the Federal Reserve Board. His appointment is significant because he takes leadership during a period of high inflation, political pressure, and economic uncertainty in the United States. His policy views could influence interest rates, financial markets, and overall economic growth.

2. How did the Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation?
The U.S. Senate confirmed Warsh with a 54-45 vote after a highly debated and politically divided confirmation process. Democrat Senator John Fetterman joined Republican lawmakers in supporting the nomination made by Donald Trump.

3. What economic challenges will Kevin Warsh face as Federal Reserve Chair?
Warsh assumes office at a time when the U.S. economy is dealing with rising inflation, higher energy costs, and geopolitical tensions. Consumer prices have reportedly increased by 3.8% annually, creating pressure on the Federal Reserve to balance inflation control with economic growth.

4. What are Kevin Warsh’s major policy priorities?
Warsh has indicated support for reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and favoring lower interest rates to encourage economic growth. He has also called for what he describes as a “regime change” within the Federal Reserve, signaling potential changes in monetary policy strategy and institutional direction.

5. Why has the Federal Reserve’s independence become a major discussion point?
The Federal Reserve has faced growing political pressure in recent years, especially during the transition from Jerome Powell to Warsh. Critics argue that closer alignment with the White House could affect the Fed’s traditional independence, which is considered important for maintaining trust and stability in the financial system.

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Inflation, measured by the PCE index, is now expected at 2.7% for the year, up from 2.4%, driven largely by a 4% surge in oil prices that pushed Brent crude to $107.38 per barrel following escalating conflict involving Iran and regional energy disruptions in Qatar.

Despite higher inflation, GDP growth was slightly upgraded to 2.4% for 2026, while unemployment remains steady at 4.4%, highlighting economic resilience. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, emphasised “unusually high” uncertainty, noting both inflation and labour market risks remain balanced, while financial markets reacted negatively with the S&P 500 falling 1.4%, alongside a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields.

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Details of the press release
Speaking after the decision, Jerome Powell underscored the unpredictable nature of the current environment, particularly in light of the intensifying conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. He emphasized that rising energy prices are likely to push inflation higher in the near term but cautioned that the scale and duration of the impact remain unclear.

Powell repeatedly stressed the lack of clarity surrounding the economic outlook, noting that outcomes could vary widely. This ambiguity reflects the difficult balancing act facing policymakers as they attempt to manage inflation risks without undermining labor market stability.

The uncertainty was further compounded by developments in the Middle East, where Iran’s missile strikes reportedly caused extensive damage to energy infrastructure in Qatar following earlier attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field. The escalation sent shockwaves through global energy markets.

Oil prices surged as a result, with Brent crude settling at $107.38 per barrel, marking a roughly 4% increase. The spike in energy costs has already begun influencing inflation expectations and financial market behavior.

Financial markets reacted swiftly to the evolving scenario. Traders scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts in the near term, with futures markets now suggesting that the Fed may delay easing monetary policy until as late as 2027.

Despite this shift, the Fed’s official projections still indicate a single quarter-percentage-point rate cut by the end of this year. However, Powell acknowledged that a “meaningful” number of policymakers are now anticipating less easing than previously expected, signalling a more cautious stance within the central bank.

Interestingly, while a rate hike was discussed during the meeting, Powell clarified that it is not the base-case scenario for most officials.

The Fed revised its inflation forecast higher, projecting that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index will end the year at 2.7%, up from the 2.4% estimate in December. This adjustment reflects both rising oil prices and persistent tariff-related pressures that have slowed progress toward the central bank’s 2% target.

Powell highlighted that a key factor to watch will be a reduction in goods inflation, which he sees as critical for achieving sustained disinflation.

The Fed now finds itself navigating a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical risks, volatile energy prices, and evolving economic dynamics. Powell reiterated that monetary policy remains flexible and will be guided by incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

With inflation still above target and global uncertainty intensifying, the path forward for U.S. monetary policy appears increasingly uncertain—leaving markets and policymakers alike in a state of heightened vigilance.

FAQs
1. Why did the Federal Reserve keep interest rates unchanged?
The Federal Reserve held rates steady due to heightened uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions and rising inflation risks, preferring to wait for clearer economic data.

2. What is the Fed’s current inflation outlook?
The Fed now expects inflation, measured by PCE, to reach 2.7% this year, higher than its earlier 2.4% estimate, largely due to rising oil prices and persistent tariff pressures.

3. How did oil prices impact the Fed’s decision?
Oil prices jumped about 4% to $107.38 per barrel following Middle East escalation, increasing inflation concerns and complicating the Fed’s policy outlook.

4. What are the expectations for interest rate cuts?
While the Fed still projects one rate cut this year, financial markets now expect no cuts until 2027 due to persistent inflation risks.

5. How did financial markets react?
Markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 falling 1.4%, while the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields increased.

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“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, and his entire Board, should be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen to the United States… We should be paying 1% Interest, or better.”

Trump’s aggressive stance comes amid rising concerns over economic headwinds and soaring interest costs. Powell is scheduled to speak tonight at 7 PM IST, with markets on edge for potential clues on future monetary policy.

China’s Factory Activity Rebounds Amid Export Resilience

In contrast, China’s manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in June. The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, beating expectations and signaling renewed expansion following May’s contraction of 48.3. Export-oriented producers led the rebound, providing a positive signal for China’s industrial outlook despite ongoing global trade disruptions.

Gold Rebounds from 5-Week Lows; Silver Holds Firm

Gold prices recovered from recent five-week lows on bargain buying and weakness in the U.S. dollar, which slipped to 43-month lows due to a shrinking U.S. GDP and surging Euro strength. Inflation fears and high trade tariffs continue to pressure the dollar, offering support to precious metals. Silver held firm after weak Chinese data, maintaining key technical levels.

Outlook: Volatility to Continue Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data

Manoj Kumar Jain, Director, Prithvi Finmart, noted:

“We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid dollar index swings, geopolitical risks, and upcoming U.S. jobs data. Gold could hold $3,200/oz and silver $35.00/oz on a weekly closing basis.”

• Gold Support: $3284–3266 | Resistance: $3327–3345
• Silver Support: $35.80–35.55 | Resistance: $36.30–36.60
• MCX Gold: ₹95,700–₹95,220 | Resistance: ₹96,600–₹97,000
• MCX Silver: ₹1,05,500–₹1,04,850 | Resistance: ₹1,07,000–₹1,07,700

Kedia Commodity Technical View

• Gold: Support at ₹95,575, with potential dip to ₹95,075. Resistance at ₹96,380–₹96,685.
• Silver: Support at ₹1,04,910, with risk of falling to ₹1,04,365. Resistance at ₹1,05,895–₹1,06,335.

Augmont Gold and Silver Prediction

Motilal Oswal Gold Silver Forecast

Events to Watch: June 30 – July 7, 2025 (IST)

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Euro Area

• 12:30 AM – ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 02:30 PM – Inflation Rate YoY Flash (June)

US

• 07:00 PM – Fed Chair Powell Speech
• 07:30 PM – ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
• 07:30 PM – JOLTs Job Openings

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

US

• 05:45 PM – ADP Employment Change (June)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

US

• 06:00 PM – Non-Farm Payrolls (June)
• 06:00 PM – Unemployment Rate (June)
• 06:00 PM – Initial Jobless Claims
• 07:30 PM – ISM Services PMI (June)
• 07:30 PM – Factory Orders MoM (May)
• 08:30 PM – Fed Bostic Speech

Other Major Events This Week

Russia–Ukraine standoff

BRICS Summit: July 6–7, 2025

Trump Tariff Statement: Expected this week

US–China Tariff Deal: Updates anticipated

Geopolitical Tensions:

Iran–Israel conflict

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According to Media Reports, Trump is considering at least four potential candidates to lead the central bank into a new era of monetary policy. The shortlist reportedly includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and current Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Among them, Bowman has drawn praise from the American Bankers Association for being a “thoughtful, principled voice for sensible regulatory policy.”

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Market Impact Already Visible

The uncertainty surrounding Powell’s replacement — and expectations that the next Fed Chair may pursue rate cuts more aggressively — has already rattled currency markets. The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.5% following news of Trump’s intentions, hitting its lowest level since early 2022. Traders are now pricing in 65 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, up from 46 basis points just days ago.

Economy Slips, Dollar Slides, Rate Cut Bets Rise

Fueling the shift in sentiment is a surprise contraction in the U.S. economy. Revised Q1 2025 data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed GDP shrank by 0.5%, marking the first quarterly decline since 2022. With inflation cooling and economic growth faltering, many expect the next Fed Chair to lean toward monetary easing.

The dollar’s ongoing decline — already down 10% this year — has led to a surge in alternative currency settlements, with global exporters increasingly favoring euros, yuan, and pesos over the greenback. This shift aligns with recent survey findings from OMFIF, where central banks signaled plans to diversify away from the dollar and increase their gold reserves.

On the other hand UBS says gold prices may touch 3500 Dollar Till Year End.

UBS Chief Investment Office view: The OMFIF survey underlines our view that demand for gold among central banks is likely to remain robust. Although gold has retreated from record highs in recent weeks, we continue to see gold as an attractive source of diversification. Our base case is for the metal to end the year trading around USD 3,500 an ounce, compared to USD 3,325 an ounce at present. Regarding the US dollar, we expect sustained US policy uncertainty to erode the belief in US exceptionalism. We recommend using near-term dollar strength to reduce excess US dollar cash by investing or diversifying into other currencies such as the yen, euro, pound, and Australian dollar. International investors should also review their strategic currency allocations and consider hedging US dollar exposure in US assets back into their home currencies.

A Pivotal Decision for Global Markets

Who Trump selects as the next Federal Reserve Chair will have wide-reaching implications for interest rates, inflation, and investor sentiment. With financial markets already reacting to the mere possibility of a leadership change, the formal nomination will be closely watched by Wall Street and central banks worldwide.

As Trump signals his intent to chart a new course for U.S. monetary policy, the key question remains: Will the next Fed Chair follow Powell’s path, or mark a major shift toward looser, more politically-aligned monetary policy?

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Despite President Donald Trump’s recent tariff actions having only a limited immediate impact on inflation, markets remain uncertain about their long-term effects. Investors are particularly focused on whether the Fed will stick to its prior projection of two rate cuts in 2025 or revise its stance amid evolving economic and geopolitical conditions.

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In domestic markets, silver continued its stellar run, scaling fresh all-time highs on MCX and nearing ₹1,10,000 per kg, supported by safe-haven demand. Gold, meanwhile, traded slightly weaker on global cues but remains elevated due to geopolitical risks and currency weakness.

U.S. Treasury yields declined sharply on Tuesday after retail sales data came in below expectations, raising fears of a slowdown or even recession. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped over 6 basis points to 4.387%, while the 2-year yield slipped more than 2 basis points to 3.946%. Bond prices rose in response, as investors sought safer assets.

Geopolitical Tensions Deepen as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Day Six

Tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared “The battle begins” in a social media post. His comments followed a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and labeled Khamenei an “easy target,” warning that America’s “patience is wearing thin.”

CNN reported that Trump is increasingly open to using U.S. military forces to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. A senior Israeli official told the network that Israel is awaiting confirmation on whether the U.S. will assist in neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Early Wednesday, Israel launched a new wave of airstrikes on Tehran. Sirens blared across Israeli cities warning of incoming Iranian missiles, and explosions were reported in Tel Aviv, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict.

Japan Exports Slump Amid Trade Headwinds

Japan’s exports in May fell 1.7% year-on-year, the sharpest decline since September 2024, as the country faces persistent trade uncertainty. Although the decline was less than the 3.8% forecasted by Reuters, it marked a notable reversal from April’s 2% gain. Trade Ministry data showed that exports to the U.S. dropped by 11.1%, while shipments to China fell by 8.8%.

Expert View: Manoj Kumar Jain – Commodity & Currency Outlook

On Gold & Silver:
“Gold and silver prices remained highly volatile amid geopolitical tensions and ahead of the Fed’s policy decision. The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted safe-haven demand, but weak U.S. retail and core retail sales data are capping gains. Chinese gold demand also eased in May, further limiting the upside. While gold fell on Comex, silver extended gains and surpassed $37 per troy ounce—its highest since February 2012. In the domestic market, a weaker rupee supported both metals,” said Manoj Kumar Jain.

“We expect continued volatility this week, driven by fluctuations in the dollar index, geopolitical developments, and the Fed’s monetary policy. Gold could hold its key support of $3,284/oz, and silver may remain above $34/oz on a weekly basis.”

Technical Levels (International):

• Gold support: $3,384–$3,360 | Resistance: $3,427–$3,455
• Silver support: $36.80–$36.40 | Resistance: $37.40–$37.74

Technical Levels (MCX):

• Gold support: ₹99,100–₹98,650 | Resistance: ₹99,850–₹1,00,200
• Silver support: ₹1,08,000–₹1,07,200 | Resistance: ₹1,09,750–₹1,10,600

On Currency (USDINR):
“As per the daily chart, the USDINR pair has support at 86.0500–85.8400 and resistance at 86.5000–86.8000. It is expected to trade in the range of 85.1000–87.5500 this week,” Jain added.

Nirmal Bang gold silver prediction

SMC Global gold and silver forecast

Motilal Oswal Group Gold and Silver Predictions

Big Events of The Week

Wednesday, June 18, 2025
United Kingdom
11:30 AM – UK Inflation Rate Year-on-Year for May

United States
11:30 PM – US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
11:30 PM – FOMC Economic Projections
11:30 PM – Interest Rate Projections for 2025 and 2026
12:00 AM (June 19) – Fed Chair Press Conference

Thursday, June 19, 2025
United States
US markets will remain closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day

Euro Area
01:00 PM – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech

United Kingdom
04:30 PM – Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

Friday, June 20, 2025
China
06:45 AM – China Loan Prime Rate Decision for 1-Year and 5-Year terms (June)

United States
07:30 PM – US Conference Board Leading Index for May

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The Federal Reserve confirmed the meeting in an official statement, clarifying that Powell did not share his outlook on future monetary policy. Instead, the discussion focused on broader economic developments.

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Federal Reserve Press Release says:
“At the President’s invitation, Chair Powell met with the President today at the White House to discuss economic developments including for growth, employment, and inflation.

Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.

Finally, Chair Powell said that he and his colleagues on the FOMC will set monetary policy, as required by law, to support maximum employment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis.”

This high-level engagement underscores the continued tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding the future direction of interest rate policy, especially with inflation and economic uncertainty still looming.

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UBS Maintains Bullish Gold Outlook for 2025 and 2026
UBS continues to hold a bullish long-term view on gold. “Given the downside risks to growth, we think the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to ease its policy, thus creating a positive backdrop for gold,” said Joni Teves, Precious Metals Strategist at UBS, during a virtual media briefing. The bank has reaffirmed its gold price forecast of US$3,500 per ounce for both 2025 and 2026, although Teves warned of a potential slowdown in the rally by mid-to-late 2025.

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Near-Term Consolidation Likely, Physical Demand Rising
Teves also highlighted a buying opportunity for investors. “For physical investors, gold demand has picked up across various regions during the first quarter of 2025, and we think this will continue for the remainder of the year,” she said, hinting at a healthy physical market backdrop even amid potential consolidation.

Japan’s Economy Contracts More Than Expected
Japan’s economic outlook added to global market concerns. Preliminary government data showed the economy shrank by 0.2% in the March quarter, marking its first contraction in a year. On an annualized basis, GDP fell 0.7%, significantly worse than the 0.2% drop forecasted by Reuters, primarily due to a sharp decline in exports.

Putin Snubs Ukraine Talks; Trump Insists on Personal Role
The geopolitical situation escalated as Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a lower-level delegation to the peace talks in Turkey, declining a face-to-face meeting with Zelenskiy. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy responded by sending his defense minister to lead the delegation. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said there would be “no movement” unless he personally met with Putin.

Trump Stirs Middle East Tensions, Reveals Progress with Iran
President Trump also made waves during his Gulf tour by expressing intentions to take over the Gaza Strip and “make it a freedom zone.” He further stated that the U.S. was close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, saying Tehran had “sort of” agreed to the terms. “We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” Trump said, according to an AFP pool report.

Powell Flags Structural Economic Challenges
At a policy conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that long-term interest rates could remain elevated due to structural changes in the economy and policy uncertainty. “More frequent and persistent supply shocks are a significant challenge for both the economy and central banks,” Powell said.

Global and Domestic Markets Close Higher
Gold June futures settled at $3,226.60 per troy ounce, up 1.20%, while silver July futures ended at $32.68, up 0.73%. In Indian markets, gold closed at ₹93,169 per 10 grams and silver at ₹95,915 per kg, both marking gains. The recovery followed earlier declines driven by U.S.-China trade optimism and Iran deal hopes, but prices rebounded on mixed U.S. data and a weaker dollar.

U.S. Data Supports Precious Metals Recovery
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.5% month-on-month, contrasting expectations of a 0.3% rise. Better-than-expected U.S. retail sales, a weaker dollar index, and falling U.S. 10-year bond yields also supported gold and silver prices.

Market Outlook from Prithvi Finmart
Manoj Kumar Jain, Director at Prithvi Finmart, commented on the short-term trend:
“We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile in today’s session amid volatility in the dollar index and US inflation expectations data; gold prices could hold its key support level of $3,140 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $31.40 per troy ounce levels.”
He added, “Gold has support at $3,200–3,174 and resistance at $3,250–3,280 per troy ounce, while silver has support at $32.40–32.10 and resistance at $33.00–33.30. We suggest buying silver around 95,500 with a stop loss of 95,000 for a target of 96,650.”

Currency Market Volatility Likely
On the rupee, Jain noted:
“We expect the rupee to remain volatile in today’s session amid dollar index fluctuations and global financial market cues. The pair could trade in the range of 85.0600–86.1500.”
“As per the daily technical chart, support is at 85.3500–85.0600 and resistance is at 85.8000–86.1500. The pair is trading above its support level of 85.0600 and is expected to stay in the 85.0600–86.1500 range today.”

Technical Levels from Kedia Commodity
According to Kedia Commodity, gold saw short covering with a 6.64% drop in open interest to 11,079, as prices rose ₹904.
Gold support lies at ₹91,555 with further downside to ₹89,945, while resistance is at ₹94,110. A breakout could push it to ₹95,055.
Silver is showing fresh buying with a 1.5% rise in open interest to 20,526. Support is at ₹94,410 and ₹92,910; resistance lies at ₹96,800, with potential to test ₹97,690.

IIDM Levels Suggest Upside Above $3,260
IIDM’s daily update suggests that gold faces resistance at $3,260, above which an upward move toward $3,300–3,330 is likely. Strong support remains at $3,200, and a break below this could lead to a further dip to $3,150–3,100.

JM Financial Gold and Silver Forecast for the Day

Nirmal Bang Prediction for Gold and Silver Prices

Geojit Group Outlook for gold silver today

SMC Global outlook for Today Gold and Silver

Motilal Oswal Group Gold Price Prediction

Big Events of The Week

Monday, May 12, 2025
07:55 PM – US – Fed Kugler Speech
11:30 PM – US – Monthly Budget Statement (April)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025
06:00 PM – US – Core Inflation Rate MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Inflation Rate MoM (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025
02:45 PM – US – Fed Waller Speech
06:40 PM – US – Fed Jefferson Speech

Thursday, May 15, 2025
02:30 PM – Eurozone – GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate (Q1)
06:00 PM – US – Retail Sales MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Core PPI MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
06:10 PM – US – Fed Chair Powell Speech
06:45 PM – US – Industrial Production MoM (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025
05:20 AM – Japan – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Preliminary (Q1)
07:30 PM – US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (May)

Other Major Events This Week
China–US Trade Talks
President Trump’s Visit to the Middle East

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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of industry experts. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you consult a financial advisor. The team at Gold Price Today does not engage in personal buying, selling, or trading of gold or silver on exchanges. We are not responsible for any gains or losses incurred based on the information presented here.

The slide in bullion prices coincides with global geopolitical developments and key economic data expectations. Today, markets are closely watching the Russia-Ukraine peace talks scheduled in Istanbul and the U.S. unemployment claims data due later this evening. Today in evening also keep eye on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and Euro Zone GDP data.

Geopolitical Developments: Spotlight on Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks
According to Reuters, both U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have indicated they will not attend the Istanbul peace summit—potentially the first direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv in three years. Instead, the Kremlin will send a delegation of senior technocrats, including presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky and Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin. While Putin had earlier proposed direct negotiations “without any preconditions,” his absence raises uncertainty about the talks’ outcome. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is headed to Turkey but has said he will attend only if Putin is present. The outcome of this meeting could significantly influence global market sentiment and gold prices.

Trump’s Middle East Moves Shake Markets
President Trump’s Middle East tour also stirred geopolitical and market discussions. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump met with Syria’s president and announced the lifting of all U.S. sanctions on the war-torn nation, surprising many in the region. He then traveled to Qatar, where he oversaw a major Boeing jet deal. These developments have sparked unease in Israel, whose government has so far maintained diplomatic silence amid the flurry of U.S. policy shifts.

On the trade front, tensions are brewing between the U.S. and India. Bloomberg reports that India has threatened retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in response to higher American duties on steel and aluminum. This move is widely seen as a negotiation tactic ahead of a high-level trade meeting in Washington.

World Gold Council Insights
Despite recent bearishness in the gold market, Chinese investors remain bullish. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), “Chinese gold ETFs recorded their strongest month on record, adding RMB49bn (US$6.8bn).” The report notes, “We believe this is due to lower gold price premiums – sometimes discounts – and cooling gold jewellery demand.” Total assets under management surged 57% in April, reaching a record-high RMB158bn (US$22bn), with holdings jumping by 65 tonnes to a record 203 tonnes.

In another report, the WGC highlighted the broader investment appeal of gold amid global uncertainty: “The current macroeconomic landscape is characterised by significant volatility and shifting dynamics… we believe investors should explore alternative and complementary assets such as gold.”

Futures markets reflected this downturn. On Wednesday Gold June futures settled at $3,188.30 per troy ounce, down 1.83%, and silver July futures ended at $32.444, down 1.98%. On the MCX, gold June futures closed at ₹92,265 per 10 grams (down 1.48%) and silver July futures at ₹95,466 per kilogram (down 1.34%).

The decline was driven by profit booking, easing April U.S. CPI inflation data, and a sharp rise in the U.S. 10-year bond yields, which crossed 4.50%. However, the weakening dollar index and unresolved trade deals may provide a floor for gold and silver in the near term.

Technical Outlook: Volatility Expected Ahead
Market analyst Manoj Kumar Jain forecasts continued volatility in precious metals:
“Gold prices could hold its key support level of $3,140 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $31.40 per troy ounce levels,” he said.
“Gold has support at $3,164–3,140, while resistance is at $3,210–3,234. Silver has support at $32.10–31.80 and resistance at $32.74–33.00 per troy ounce,” he added.
“In MCX, gold is having support at ₹91,770–91,360 and resistance at ₹92,650–93,100, while silver support lies at ₹94,800–94,200 and resistance at ₹96,000–96,650. I suggest staying away from taking fresh positions in today’s session ahead of key global economic data.”

Currency Watch
Jain expect the dollar index to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the global financial markets and ahead of the key global economic data and it could trade in the range of 97.70-102.85. On the other hand, a rupee showed very high volatility and unable to hold its previous session’s gain amid rebound in the major global currencies including the Euro and Pound Sterling. We expect a rupee to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index and volatility in the global financial markets and a pair could trade in the range of 84.2000-86.8000 this week.

Augmont Outlook says
As expected, Gold has touched and dropped below $3200 (~Rs 92000), and this target has been achieved. As prices have broken the Double-top neckline support, more downside is expected up to $3000-50 (~Rs 87000 – 88000) in the short term.Silver prices are expected to get momentum now, as the tariff war has de-escalated. We are likely to see prices touching $34(~Rs 99000) and $35(~Rs 102,0000) soon in the coming days.

JM Financial Group Daily Note
Gold prices fell more than 2 breaching past key support at 3190 as risk sentiments improved on reports that the U S is likely to clinch a trade deal with Japan and South Korea soon, while talks with India is going well

Kedia Commodity Outlook for Today
Gold -Immediate support lies at ₹91,635, with a further downside to ₹91,005. Resistance is seen at ₹93,280; a break above may push prices toward ₹94,295.
Silver- Immediate support lies at ₹94,645, with a break below likely testing ₹93,820. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹96,675; a move above this level could open the path toward ₹97,880.

IIDM Daily Note
According to IIDM, the next major support for gold is seen at $3,150. “Below this, a further dip towards $3,100–3,075 can be seen,” their daily update noted. Resistance is pegged at $3,220, above which a move toward $3,260–3,300 is possible.

Nirmal Bang Gold and Silver Outlook

Geojit Group Outlook For the Day

SMC Group Outlook For Today

Big Events of The Week

Monday, May 12, 2025
07:55 PM – US – Fed Kugler Speech
11:30 PM – US – Monthly Budget Statement (April)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025
06:00 PM – US – Core Inflation Rate MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Inflation Rate MoM (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025
02:45 PM – US – Fed Waller Speech
06:40 PM – US – Fed Jefferson Speech

Thursday, May 15, 2025
02:30 PM – Eurozone – GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate (Q1)
06:00 PM – US – Retail Sales MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Core PPI MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
06:10 PM – US – Fed Chair Powell Speech
06:45 PM – US – Industrial Production MoM (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025
05:20 AM – Japan – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Preliminary (Q1)
07:30 PM – US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (May)

Other Major Events This Week
China–US Trade Talks
President Trump’s Visit to the Middle East

Gold Price Today in Sarafa Market (15-05-2025)
99.50~94700
23 KT~92300
22 KT~88500
20 KT~80700
18 KT~72800
14 KT~58100
9999 SILVER:~97200

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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of industry experts. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you consult a financial advisor. The team at Gold Price Today does not engage in personal buying, selling, or trading of gold or silver on exchanges. We are not responsible for any gains or losses incurred based on the information presented here.